……. Rainfall is expected to be normal for this season……
Based on a number of global models, historical data and subjective input, the following forecast has been made for the island of St. Maarten for the next three (3) months — namely March to May 2026.
 

Mar-Apr-May season is the second half of the dry season on St. Maarten; hence, mostly dry conditions with an increase in rainfall intensity and frequency by May.  
The forecast suggests there will be up  to 5 (7-day) wet spells and up to 5 (7-day) dry spells this season. There is a moderate to high risk that at least one (1) event may cause flooding and flash floods this season while there is a slight/low  chance that this event could occur in March.

According to the Precipitation Outlook for the Caribbean; rainfall in St. Maarten for the next 3 months is likely to be the usual and predicted as follows:

25% Chance of being Above Normal (more than 250 mm/10 in)
35% Chance of being Near Normal  (148 mm-250 mm/6 in-10 in)
40% Chance of being Below Normal (less than 148 mm/6 in)
 

 

 

 

 

For more information: Caribbean Climate Newsletter , Caribbean Drought Bulletin , Weather & Climate Newsletter

This information is provided by the Meteorological Department of St. Maarten in collaboration with CARICOF. There are no guarantees concerning the accuracy, totality, reliability, or suitability of this outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as an original material.