……. Rainfall is expected to be normal for this season……
Based on a number of global models, historical data and subjective input, the following forecast has been made for the island of St. Maarten for the next three (3) months — namely July to September 2026.
 

July usually has a summer dry spell and August through September is the wet and peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Rainfall is more frequent. However this year there is a strengthening El Nino which will reduce the amount of rainfall in the Caribbean region.   
The forecast suggests there will be up  to 5 (7-day) wet spells and up to 5 (7-day) dry spells this season. There is a high risk that at least one (1) event may cause flooding and flash floods this season while there is a moderate chance that this event could occur in July.

According to the Precipitation Outlook for the Caribbean; rainfall in St. Maarten for the next 3 months is likely to be the usual and predicted as follows:

For St. Maarten and the northern Leeward Islands the forecast is for lower than usual rainfall total for the period July to September 2026.
 

 

 

 

For more information: Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter, Caribbean Drought Bulletin, Weather & Climate Newsletter

This information is provided by the Meteorological Department of St. Maarten in collaboration with CARICOF. There are no guarantees concerning the accuracy, totality, reliability, or suitability of this outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as an original material.